2011 Retrospective HFIP Testing

Project Overview

The main goals for the HFIP retrospective testing activities are: (1) to provide adequate statistics for assessing the skill of the latest versions of the models; and (2) to help identify modeling systems that should be included in Stream 1.5 for the upcoming Demonstration season. Stream 1.5 refers to experimental models and/or techniques that the National Hurricane Center (NHC), based on their assessment, wants to access in real-time during a particular hurricane season, but which are not available in conventional "production" mode. The 2011 retrospective testing focused on storms in the Atlantic (AL) and Eastern North Pacific Basins (EP) from the 2008, 2009 and 2010 hurricane seasons (AL - 27 storms / 650 cases, EP - 13 storms / 270 cases). Eight modeling groups participated in 2011 retrospective testing. The models included an experimental global model, three configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and two other regional tropical cyclone models, a regional ensemble system, and an experimental statistical-dynamical model. More information on the participating models can be found under the "Models" tab.