Scenarios

with MBH Proxy networks

NH Mean RE

Calibration

Period

All Grid Cells

RE Calibration

Period

NH Mean RE

Verification

Period

NH Offset in

Verification

Inst. mean (-0.193 C)

NH Mean r 2 Calibration

Period

NH Mean r 2 Verification

Period

NH Mean CE

Verification

Period

Reference : Wahl-Ammann Emulation of MBH

1400-1449

1450-1499

 

0.39

0.47

 

0.06

0.09

 

0.48

0.44

 

0.039

-0.040

 

0.414

0.483

 

0.018

0.010

 

-0.215

-0.314

 

Scenario 5  No Gaspe

 

(a) MBH centered and standardized 2 PCs (svd):

1400-1449

1450-1499

 MBH centered and standardized 3 PCs (svd):

1400-1449

1450-1499

MBH centered and standardized 4 PCs (svd):

1400-1449

1450-1499

MBH centered and standardized 5 PCs (svd):

1400-1449

1450-1499

 

(b) MM centered and standardized 2 PCs (svd):

1400-1449

1450-1499

 MM centered and standardized 3 PCs (svd):

1400-1449

1450-1499

 MM centered and standardized 4 PCs (svd):

1400-1449

1450-1499

 MM centered and standardized 5 PCs (svd):

1400-1449

1450-1499

 

(c) MM centered, not-standardized 4 PCs (princomp):

1400-1449

1450-1499

  MM centered, not-standardized 5 PCs (princomp):

1400-1449

1450-1499

 

(d) MM centered, not-standardized 2 PCs (princomp):

(indirect Bristlecone/ Foxtail exclusion)

1400-1449

1450-1499

 MM centered, not-standardized 3 PCs (princomp):

(indirect Bristlecone/ Foxtail exclusion)

1400-1449

1450-1499

 

 

 

 

0.28

0.47

 

0.29

0.48

 

0.28

0.46

 

0.28

0.45

 

 

0.32

0.49

 

0.32

0.49

 

0.32

0.49

 

0.28

0.46

 

 

0.29

0.48

 

0.29

0.47

 

 

 

0.19

0.46

 

 

0.21

0.45

 

 

 

 

0.04

0.09

 

0.04

0.09

 

0.04

0.10

 

0.04

0.10

 

 

0.04

0.09

 

0.04

0.10

 

0.04

0.10

 

0.04

0.10

 

 

0.04

0.09

 

0.04

0.10

 

 

 

0.02

0.09

 

 

0.03

0.09

 

 

 

 

0.34

0.44

 

0.34

0.44

 

0.33

0.43

 

0.33

0.44

 

 

0.18

0.46

 

0.18

0.45

 

0.18

0.46

 

0.19

0.45

 

 

014

0.43

 

0.14

0.45

 

 

 

-0.18

0.42

 

 

-0.14

0.43

 

 

 

 

0.093

-0.030

 

0.094

-0.029

 

0.096

-0.029

 

0.095

-0.025

 

 

0.135

-0.007

 

0.135

-0.009

 

0.135

-0.007

 

0.134

-0.004

 

 

0.144

0.001

 

0.144

-0.005

 

 

 

0.190

0.008

 

 

0.184

0.009

 

 

 

 

0.327

0.485

 

0.330

0.487

 

0.322

0.474

 

0.322

0.474

 

 

0.353

0.499

 

0.353

0.500

 

0.353

0.497

 

0.324

0.474

 

 

0.333

0.489

 

0.333

0.487

 

 

 

0.262

0.476

 

 

0.272

0.464

 

 

 

 

0.014

0.008

 

0.013

0.005

 

0.011

0.003

 

0.010

0.004

 

 

0.007

0.010

 

0.007

0.007

 

0.007

0.008

 

0.006

0.007

 

 

0.003

0.002

 

0.003

0.004

 

 

 

0.0001

0.002

 

 

0.0002

0.004

 

 

 

 

-0.538

-0.308

 

-0.549

-0.315

 

-0.561

-0.328

 

-0.565

-0.315

 

 

-0.928

-0.272

 

-0.927

-0.279

 

-0.929

-0.272

 

-0.903

-0.277

 

 

-1.014

-0.345

 

-1.012

-0.299

 

 

 

-1.761

-0.358

 

 

-1.674

-0.333

 

 

Scenario 6  No Gaspe and no Bristlecone/Foxtail

 

(a)  MBH-centered, standardized, 2 PCs (svd):

1400-1449

1450-1499

MBH-centered, standardized, 3 PCs (svd):

1400-1449

1450-1499

MBH-centered, standardized, 4 PCs (svd):

1400-1449

1450-1499

MBH-centered, standardized, 5 PCs (svd):

1400-1449

1450-1499

 

(b)  MM-centered, standardized, 2 PCs (svd):

1400-1449

1450-1499

MM-centered, standardized, 3 PCs (svd):

1400-1449

1450-1499

MM-centered, standardized, 4 PCs (svd):

1400-1449

1450-1499

MM-centered, standardized, 5 PCs (svd):

1400-1449

1450-1499

 

(c)  MM-centered, not-standardized, 2 PCs (princomp):

(reconstructed instrumental PCs not re-scaled)

1400-1449

1450-1499

MM-centered, not-standardized, 3 PCs (princomp):

(reconstructed instrumental PCs not re-scaled)

1400-1449

1450-1499

MM-centered, not-standardized,4 PCs (princomp):

(reconstructed instrumental PCs not re-scaled)

1400-1449

1450-1499

MM-centered, not-standardized, 5 PCs (princomp):

(reconstructed instrumental PCs not re-scaled)

1400-1449

1450-1499

 

 

 

 

 

0.24

0.48

 

0.24

0.48

 

0.23

0.46

 

0.26

0.46

 

 

0.19

0.47

 

0.19

0.46

 

0.19

0.46

 

0.17

0.43

 

 

 

-0.34

0.32

 

 

-0.35

0.32

 

 

-0.29

0.33

 

 

-0.32

0.30

 

 

 

 

0.03

0.09

 

0.03

0.09

 

0.03

0.09

 

0.03

0.09

 

 

0.02

0.09

 

0.02

0.09

 

0.02

0.10

 

0.02

0.10

 

 

 

-0.08

0.005

 

 

-0.08

0.002

 

 

-0.07

0.02

 

 

-0.07

0.03

 

 

 

 

-0.13

0.43

 

-0.13

0.42

 

-0.13

0.42

 

-0.17

0.12

 

 

-0.20

0.42

 

            -0.20

0.43

 

-0.42

0.43

 

-0.34

0.41

 

 

 

-0.56

0.14

 

 

-0.56

0.14

 

 

-0.59

0.15

 

 

-0.42

0.18

 

 

 

 

0.182

0.008

 

0.182

0.006

 

0.181

0.017

 

0.187

0.017

 

 

1

0.008

 

0.192

0.008

 

0.219

0.002

 

0.209

0.008

 

 

 

0.196

-0.062

 

 

0.197

-0.063

 

 

0.201

-0.064

 

 

0.183

-0.052

 

 

 

 

0.297

0.490

 

0.297

0.491

 

0.289

0.474

 

0.312

0.477

 

 

0.259

0.477

 

0.261

0.470

 

0.264

0.473

 

0.248

0.452

 

 

 

0.267

0.475

 

 

0.266

0.477

 

 

0.273

0.479

 

 

0.258

0.458

 

 

 

 

0.0001

0.006

 

0.00002

0.004

 

0.000002

0.003

 

0.00004

0.003

 

 

0.00003

0.0006

 

0.00002

0.002

 

0.003

0.002

 

0.002

0.001

 

 

 

0.0002

0.0002

 

 

0.0002

0.0004

 

 

0.0004

0.0006

 

 

0.000007

0.001

 

 

 

 

-1.647

-0.338

 

-1.655

-0.353

 

-1.658

-0.354

 

-1.743

-0.355

 

 

-1.819

-0.369

 

-1.806

-0.342

 

-2.329

-0.342

 

-2.135

-0.381

 

 

 

-2.666

-1.016

 

 

-2.660

-1.012

 

 

-2.731

-0.993

 

 

-2.336

-0.932